Today, global markets were rocked by a blockbuster piece of news: U.S. President Trump suddenly announced that a trade deal has been signed with China. The US-China trade friction, which has lasted for years, seems to have reached a turning point overnight. However, before the champagne bubbles have even settled, we find that the details of this agreement have yet to be released.

Is this truly the "final bell" of the trade war, or is it the "starting gun" for a new, more complex round of gamesmanship? Especially with the "rare earths card" looming in the background of the deal, everything seems to become much more intricate.

I. What Happened? A Deal Signed, But Details Remain a Mystery

According to the latest reports, President Trump has high-profilely announced the conclusion of the deal, and the U.S. Secretary of Commerce has also confirmed its signing. This marks a milestone achievement following several rounds of arduous negotiations in Geneva and London.

However, the strange part is that the White House has remained tight-lipped about the core issues of the agreement, such as what areas it covers, how tariffs will be adjusted, and what the enforcement mechanisms are. This "it's official, but not fully announced" approach leaves massive room for imagination (and speculation) in the market. The more ambiguous the information, the more intense the underlying struggle is likely to be.

II. Behind the Deal: The Inescapable "Rare Earths Card"

To understand the true weight of this agreement, one must understand the key bargaining chip under the table: rare earths.

Known as the "vitamins of industry," rare earths are essential materials for manufacturing everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to stealth fighter jets. And China holds an absolutely dominant position in the global mining and refining of these elements.

Throughout these lengthy trade negotiations, rare earths have been a powerful card in China's hand. Just recently, China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement implementing export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earth items to "safeguard national security and interests." This move undoubtedly sent a clear signal to the world: we have a firm grip on our core strategic resources.

But interestingly, at almost the same time, the Ministry of Commerce also revealed that it is accelerating the review of "compliant applications" for rare earth export licenses.

This combination of "control" and "release" precisely reflects China's mature strategy on the rare earths issue: maintaining strategic deterrence while also demonstrating flexibility to create favorable conditions for negotiations.

III. Future Trends: A Few Tentative Predictions

Based on the current information, we can make the following predictions about future developments:

1. More Symbolic Than Substantive; Likely a Short-Term "Political Show." Before the details are announced, the agreement's greatest function is likely political. For the Trump administration, announcing a "victorious" trade deal in the run-up to the U.S. election helps boost his campaign. Therefore, the agreement is likely a framework or a "ceasefire" in principle. The real details and implementation will require a long, drawn-out process.

2. The "Rare Earths War" Will Enter a New Phase: From "Embargo" Threats to "Precision Control." It is foreseeable that China will not easily give up its rare earths card. The future strategy will no longer be about simple discussions of a "supply cut-off," but will shift towards a more sophisticated management model. Through the export licensing system, China can:

• Prioritize supply for its domestic high-tech industries.

• Implement differentiated supply strategies for different countries and companies.

• Push global rare earth prices back to a reasonable value range, getting rid of the "cabbage price" dilemma. This is a more sophisticated and sustainable approach than a simple "embargo" threat.

3. Global Supply Chains Will Accelerate "De-Risking" Layouts. Regardless of the content of this agreement, the repeated trade frictions between the US and China have already sounded the alarm for multinational corporations worldwide. The risk of over-reliance on a single source of supply is extremely high. In the coming years, we can expect major global tech companies (like Tesla and Apple) and countries (like the US, Japan, and the EU) to pursue the following two things, regardless of cost:

• Research and development of alternative materials for rare earths.

• Investment in developing rare earth sources outside of China (e.g., Australia, the US, Southeast Asia). Although it will be difficult to shake China's dominant position in the short term, the diversification of the global rare earths supply chain will be an irreversible long-term trend.

Conclusion

All in all, the trade deal announced by Trump is more like a "halftime break" in an intense boxing match than the final whistle. It has temporarily eased market tensions but has not resolved the deep-seated structural contradictions and strategic competition between the US and China.

Especially in the core links of the tech industry chain, represented by rare earths, the real contest has just begun.

For us, the most important thing is not to cheer for the deal, but to calmly observe and think about our own position and opportunities in this new round of global industrial restructuring.