In July 9th 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump reignited global trade tensions by announcing steep new "reciprocal tariffs" on seven countries through social media:

Sri Lanka (30%)
Libya (30%)
Iraq (30%)
Algeria (30%)
Moldova (25%)
Brunei (25%)
Philippines (20%)

The move sparked widespread debate: Why were these specific countries targeted? What’s the strategic calculus behind Trump’s decision?

I. Why These Seven Countries? Possible Rationale

1. Symbolic Action Over Economic Impact

These countries have relatively small trade volumes with the U.S., meaning the economic consequences for the U.S. are limited. This makes them ideal for demonstrating a tough stance without risking serious retaliation or domestic harm—a "low-cost, high-volume" strategy.

2. Alleged Lack of Reciprocity

Trump has long emphasized "reciprocal tariffs" and argues that these countries have not offered fair market access to U.S. goods. For instance:

• The Philippines has benefited from the U.S. GSP program but allegedly still imposes restrictive trade practices;

• Brunei and Sri Lanka enjoy favorable access to the U.S. market but offer little in return;

• Iraq, Libya, and Algeria are often accused of benefiting from U.S. protection while failing to reciprocate economically.

3. Diplomatic Messaging

Many of these countries hold geostrategic value, and tariffs may serve broader foreign policy goals:

• Middle Eastern and North African nations (Iraq, Libya, Algeria): Signal pressure on energy diplomacy or political alignment;

• Philippines and Brunei: Located in the South China Sea region, they’re central to U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy;

• Moldova: A small state caught between Russia and the EU, possibly a subtle message in the broader East-West rivalry.

4. A Prelude to Larger Actions

This rollout could be a “trial balloon” for more significant actions targeting major economies like China, Vietnam, or Mexico. By starting small, the Trump team can gauge reactions and refine strategy.

II. Strategic Meaning of “Reciprocal Tariffs”

ObjectiveInterpretationDomestic Political MobilizationAppeals to the narrative that America is being taken advantage of, energizing voters in key manufacturing and farming states.Breaking Away from MultilateralismSidesteps WTO rules in favor of bilateral leverage, aiming to rebuild trade frameworks centered around U.S. dominance.Shifting the Political NarrativeAmid judicial and electoral scrutiny, trade moves can draw attention and change media focus.

III. Conclusion: The Storm Has Just Begun?

Though the immediate impact may be limited, this list of seven countries could mark the beginning of a broader “reciprocal tariff agenda.” Whether Trump expands the list—and how it might affect relations with China, the EU, or the broader Asia-Pacific—remains to be seen.

We’ll continue monitoring the evolving tariff landscape. Stay tuned for future insights and updates.